"In spite of the opinions of certain narrow-minded people, who
would shut up the human race upon this globe, as within some magic circle
which it must never outstep, we shall one day travel to the moon, the
planets, and the stars, with the same facility, rapidity, and certainty
as we now make the voyage from Liverpool to New York!"
- Jules Verne
Our sun is one of 100 billion stars in our galaxy. Our galaxy
is one of billions of galaxies populating the universe. It would be
the height of presumption to think that we are the only living things
in that enormous immensity. - Wernher von Braun. His crowning
achievement was to lead the development of the Saturn V booster rocket
that helped land the first men on the Moon in July 1969.
By
Giulio Prisco/KurzweilAI Giulio Prisco is transhumanism editor for KurzweilAI. He is
a science writer, technology expert, futurist, and transhumanist.
The awesome 100
Year Starship
(100YSS) initiative by DARPA and NASA proposes to send people
to the stars by the year 2100 a huge challenge that will
require bold, visionary, out-of-the-box thinking.
There are major challenges.
Using current propulsion technology, travel to a nearby
star (such as our closest star system, Alpha Centauri, at 4.37
light years from the Sun, which also has a a planet with about
the mass of the Earth orbiting it) would take close to 100,000
years, according to Icarus
Interstellar,
which has teamed with the Dorothy
Jemison Foundation for Excellence
and the Foundation
for Enterprise Development
to manage the project.
To make the
trip on timescales of a human lifetime, the rocket needs to travel
much faster than current probes, at least 5% the speed of light.
Its actually physically impossible to do this using
chemical rockets, since youd need more fuel than exists
in the known universe, Icarus Interstellar points
out.
Artwork: The bright star Alpha Centauri and its surroundings (credit:
ESO)
So the Icarus team
has chosen a fusion-based propulsion design for Project Icarus,
offering a million times more energy compared to chemical reactions.
It would be evolved from their Daedalus design.
This propulsion technology
is not yet well developed, and there are serious problems, such
as the need for heavy neutron shields and risks of interstellar
dust impacts, equivalent to small nuclear explosions on the crafts
skin, as the Icarus team states.
Although Einsteins
fundamental speed-of-light limit seems solid, ways to work around
it were also proposed by physicists at the recent 100
Year Starship Symposium.
Daedalus concept (credit: Adrian Mann)
However, as a reality
check, I will assume as a worse case that none of these exotic
propulsion breakthroughs will be developed in this century.
That leaves us with
an unmanned craft, but for that, as Icarus Interstellar points
out, one needs a large amount of system autonomy and redundancy.
If the craft travels five light years from Earth, for example,
it means that any message informing mission control of some kind
of system error would take five years to reach the scientists,
and another five years for a solution to be received.
Ten years is
really too long to wait, so the craft needs a highly capable artificial
intelligence, so that it can figure out solutions to problems
with a high degree of autonomy.
If a technological
Singularity
happens, all bets are off. However, again as a worse case, I assume
here that a Singularity does not happen, or fully simulating an
astronaut does not happen. So human monitoring and control
will still be needed.
The mind-uploading
solution
The very high cost
of a crewed space mission comes from the need to ensure the survival
and safety of the humans on-board and the need to travel at extremely
high speeds to ensure its done within a human lifetime.
One way to overcome
that is to do without the wetware bodies of the crew, and send
only their minds to the stars their software
uploaded to advanced circuitry, augmented by AI subsystems
in the starships processing system.
The basic idea of
uploading is to take a particular brain [of an astronaut,
in this case], scan its structure in detail, and construct a software
model of it that is so faithful to the original that, when run
on appropriate hardware, it will behave in essentially the same
way as the original brain, as Oxford Universitys Whole
Brain Emulation Roadmap
explains.
Its also known
as whole brain emulation and substrate-independent
minds
the astronauts memories, thoughts, feelings, personality,
and self would be copied to an alternative processing
substrate such as a digital, analog, or quantum computer.
An e-crew
a crew of human uploads implemented in solid-state electronic
circuitry will not require air, water, food, medical care,
or radiation shielding, and may be able to withstand extreme acceleration.
So the size and weight of the starship will be dramatically reduced.
Combined advances
in neuroscience and computer science suggest that mind uploading
technology could be developed in this century, as noted in a recent
Special
Issue on Mind Uploading
of the International Journal of Machine Consciousness).
Uploading research
is politically incorrect: it is tainted by association with transhumanists
those fringe lunatics of the Rapture of the Nerds
so its often difficult to justify and defend.
The connectome
(credit: NIH Human Connectome Project)
Creating
a brain
But MIT neuroscientist
Sebastian Seung has speculated that if models of brains become
increasingly accurate, eventually there must be a simulation indistinguishable
from the original.
In Connectome:
How the Brains Wiring Makes Us Who We Are,
he explains how mapping the human connectome (the
connections between our brain cells) might enable us to upload
our brains into a computer.
In fact, neuroscience is ready for a large-scale functional
mapping of the entire neural circuits, Harvard scientist
George
Church
and other researchers conclude in a landmark 2012 Neuronpaper.
I suggest that developing
mind-uploading technology for software e-crews may make the 100YSS
project practical, while delivering equally important spinoffs
in neuroscience, computer science, and longevity, perhaps even
including indefinite life extension.
The new brain can
be much more resistant and long-lived than the old biological
brain, and it can be housed in a similarly resistant and long-lived
robotic body. Robots powered by human uploads can be rugged, resistant
to the vacuum and the harsh space environment, easily rechargeable,
and much smaller and lighter than wetware human bodies.
Eventually, human
uploads augmented by AI subsystems can be implemented in the solid-state
circuitry of the starships processing system.
Boredom and isolation
will not be a problem for e-crew members, because the data processing
system of a miniaturized starship will be able to accommodate
hundreds and even thousands of human uploads.
Light sail concept (credit: NASA)
Light
sails
The huge reduction
in weight resulting from uploading would allow for radical propulsion
systems, such as light
sails
(aka solar sails) spacecraft driven by light
energy alone. The Planetary Society currently has a research
project
to develop light sails.
The low mass of light
sails combined with the e-crews ability to withstand
extreme acceleration might allow for achieving a substantial
fraction of the speed of light, so the time to go to the stars
would be significantly reduced.
E-crewed interstellar missions have been described by science
fiction writers. Greg
Egan
was one of first in Diaspora.
In Charlie
Stross
Accelerando,
the coke-can-sized starship Field Circus, propelled by a Jupiter-based
laser and a light sail, visits a nearby star system with an e-crew
of 63 uploaded persons who have a hell of a lot of fun on the
way.
Here we are, sixty
something human minds. Weve been migrated while
still awake right out of our own heads using an amazing
combination of nanotechnology and electron spin resonance mapping,
and were now running as software in an operating system
designed to virtualize multiple physics models and provide a
simulation of reality that doesnt let us go mad from sensory
deprivation!
And this whole
package is about the size of a fingertip, crammed into a starship
the size of your grandmothers old Walkman, in orbit around
a brown dwarf just over three light-years from home.
Of course. a light
sail powered by lasers back home, can only push a starship on
an one-way trip, but the data from the uploaded astronauts would
will be beamed home via the Interplanetary
Internet.
The starwisp
concept proposed by Robert L. Forward is a variation of a light
sail remotely driven by a microwave beam instead of visible light
(but has known
problems).
Sideloading
One problem with
implementing mind uploading is that its plagued by metaphysical
discussions about the continuity of personal identity (is
only a copy), which are irrelevant here. Even if I thought
that uploads will be only copies, I would be not only happy, but
also grateful and honored if my upload copy could participate
in the first interstellar mission.
But even coarse,
preliminary uploading technology could be sufficient. Sideloading,
proposed
by science fiction writer Greg Egan in Zendegi,
is the process of training a neural network to mimic a particular
organic brain, using a rich set of non-invasive scans of the brain
in action.
Egan describes a
Human Connectome Project, completed in the late 2020s,
that produces detailed connectome maps from brain scans of thousands
of volunteers. The maps could be used to build an average human
neural network, which could serve as a model of a generic human
brain.
Then the model could
be tweaked and fine-tuned to emulate a specific living person,
using in-vivo brain scans and supervised training sessions in
a VR environment. In Zendegi, the resulting personalized model
passes the Turing Test and often behaves as a convincing emulation
of the original.
Why not send AIs?
If strong AI is developed,
perhaps smarter than humans, why should we bother to upload humans?
One answer is that most of us will want human minds on our first
journey to the stars.
However, I agree
with Ray Kurzweils speculation that we
will merge with technology,
so many future persons will not be pure humans or
pure AIs, but rather hybrids, blended so tightly that it will
be impossible to tell which is which.
Ultimately, I think space will not be colonized by squishy, frail
and short-lived flesh-and-blood humans. As Sir Arthur C. Clarke
wrote in Childhoods
End,
perhaps the stars are not for Man that is,
not for biological humans 1.0.
It will be up to
our postbiological
mind children, implemented as pure software based on human uploads
and AI subsystems, to explore other stars and colonize the universe.
Eventually, they will travel between the stars as radiation and
light beams.
Thursday,
January 31, 2013
Registration: 18:30-19:00, Conference: 19:00-21:15
Location: Betty
Asfalt Complex, Nieuwezijds Voorburgwal 282, 1012 RT Amsterdam
Tickets:
Euro 10 (Students), Euro 20 (Members etc.) or Euro 30. www.clubofamsterdam.com/event.asp?contentid=872 Tickets
The conference language
is English.
This event is supported by India
House Amsterdam.
With Gerard
't Hooft,
Nobel Laureate from Utrecht University Moving to Outer Space: Science and Science Fiction
Bas
Lansdorp,
Co-Founder & General Director, Mars One
Humans on Mars in 2023
Michel
van Pelt,
spaceflight engineer, author, ESA/ESTEC
Future Robotic Science and Exploration
Our Moderator is
Job
Romijn, bedenker, brainstormer,
problem solver, artist. Club of Amsterdam Round Table
.Joy
Rides and Robots are the Future of Space Travel
By Eve
Harding
Human space exploration has its roots in war. The Saturn rocket
used to propel Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin to the moon was
based on the V2 rockets developed by Nazi Germany to pummel London
during WWII. Furthermore, the space race was not a born out of
a need to explore and expand human knowledge, but was more a technological
showcase between the United States and Soviet Union during the
cold war. However, we now live in more peaceful times. The cold
war is over and it has been over forty years since a human being
last walked on the Moon, and few scientists seriously believe
we will be returning any time soon.
Manned space exploration
Manned space exploration
is expensive, very expensive. NASA has a budget of over $17 billion
a year, and the American Congress has agreed to fund the new Space
Launch System
(SLS), which is the most powerful rocket ever produced. While
this is capable for the first time since the Apollo missions of
sending humans beyond low-Earth orbit (where the International
Space Station sits and where the Space Shuttle did all of its
missions), this doesnt mean we will be sending humans back
to the Moon or beyond anytime soon.
For the last forty
years, manned space travel has involved relatively short hops
into low Earth orbit, with the Space Shuttle, Russian Soyuz and
European Ariane rockets used mainly for putting communication
satellites into orbit. Of course, this has improved our technology
dramatically. Without space travel, life would be very different
on Earth, especially when it comes to communications and telecoms.
Mobile phones, satellite TV and GPS are all technologies that
are owed to the space race, and few of us could imagine life without
a smart phone, sat nav and the other communication devices we
have come to rely on. Furthermore, these telecom satellites have
made long
distance calls
and global communication much cheaper and simpler, and have created
a much smaller world. Because of these communication satellites,
the internet has flourished, providing us with such things as
Google
Earth,
something unconceivable forty years ago. However, as useful as
telecom satellites and the big changes they have made to communications
are, there has been very little space exploration by humans. In
fact, since the last man walked on the moon in 1972, no human
has left low Earth orbit, and it doesnt look like the future
of space travel is going to involve humans doing much exploring
at all.
Robot exploration
Setting foot on the
Moon, Mars or other far off body, landing on the surface, and
then returning home safely, costs far too much to be justifiable.
However, that doesnt mean that space exploration is over.
While sending humans to far off bodies such as the Moon or Mars
is very expensive, sending robots is much, much cheaper. After
all, robots dont need oxygen, food water and a comfortable
temperature in order to survive. Furthermore, and perhaps more
importantly, robots dont have to be brought home, and a
one-way ticket to Mars is much cheaper and technologically easier
to do than a return trip.
In addition, while
human exploration is inspiring and romantic, it isnt that
useful when it comes to scientific understanding. Advances in
robotic technology means there are few things an astronaut can
do in space that a robot cant. The Mars
Curiosity Rover,
for instance, is a complete laboratory that can sample, analyse,
and study the rocks and soil of the Martian surface. Furthermore,
with its array of cameras, you dont need human eyes on the
surface to see the planet.
The stars and
beyond
Even unmanned space
exploration is still limited. While we can pretty much send a
robot anywhere in the solar system, reaching to the stars is beyond
our capabilities. The Voyager probes, for example, have been in
space over 35 years, and yet are only just reaching the outer
limits of our solar system. Travelling at 57,000 km/h, Voyager
1 is approximately 17 light hours from Earth, or put another way,
in 35 years, Voyager 1 has travelled 0.2 light years. When you
consider the nearest star, Alpha Proxima, is 4.2 light years way,
it will be another 70,000 years before the satellite gets anywhere
near.
However, travel to
the stars is not beyond the realms of possible future technologies
and is limited purely by propulsion. The problem is, the only
method we have to propel a spacecraft at the moment is rocket
power, and the big problem with that is how much fuel has to be
carried for just a relatively short periods of propulsion (95%
of Saturn 5 contained fuel, and 60% of this was burned in the
first couple of minutes). However, if a propulsion system that
is more economical is developed then travel to the stars within
reasonable timescales, such as a couple of decades, is far more
realistic, even considering the immense distance.
For example, the
average family car has an acceleration force of 1 g. However,
because of gravity, air pressure and friction, speed is limited
on Earth. In space, none of these forces apply, so if an average
family car could drive in space, it would keep on accelerating
to immense speeds. In fact, if it had enough fuel, it would take
less than three months for it to reach 50% of the speed of light,
which would mean that Alpha Proxima was within reach within a
decade of space flight (about the same amount of time as it currently
tales a probe to reach Jupiter). Of course, no such propulsion
system yet exists, but scientists believe they may not be that
far away, which means in a few generations time, manmade robots
could begin exploring planets in other solar systems, of which
there
are many,
and return their signals within the lifetime of those that sent
it.
Commercial space
travel
Despite all this,
humans will still have a place in the future of space travel,
although it is going to be a much more local activity, and it
probably wont be through large organisations such as NASA.
Commercial space travel is now a reality. Projects such as Virgin
Galactic are already preparing to take tourists into space. While
these trips are sub orbital, the demand from rich celebrities
and wealthy business people mean it wont be long before
commercial enterprise starts to expand. Already, the cash strapped
Russian Space Agency is preparing to take musical singer Sarah
Brightman to the International Space Station, and more wealthy
space tourists are bound to want to follow.
For the rest of us,
space travel may seem like a dream. However, the same was said
about the first jet airliners, but jumping on an airplane is something
most people have done. While a visit to Mars, the Moon or planets
beyond our solar system may never be a reality for us humans,
in the future, a holiday in space may just become as common as
flying abroad is today.
Top Priorities for the Continent in 2013
Africa has changed, moving from economic stagnation to above
5 percent GDP growth on average. The continent is now home to
some of the fastest growing economies in the world: Ethiopia,
Ghana, Mozambique and Tanzania. This growth has helped build
a burgeoning middle class, which has created new markets for
goods and services. Investors focused on tapping into these
new markets in Africa are likely to find it easier to do business
there than ever before as African governments are working to
reduce transaction costs. In addition to growing consumer markets,
African countries have discovered additional natural resources.
If managed properly, these resources could help spur further
economic growth and development for the region and improve the
lives of millions.
Hydrelio is the world's
first large-scale floating solar power generation concept. It
addresses the problems of land availability and landscape impacts
that large-scale land-based solar power generation projects come
up against. It makes it possible to conserve land that can be
put to other uses (farming, mining, tourism, urban development)
and to convert unused stretches of water into spaces dedicated
to renewable electricity production (quarry lakes, irrigation
ponds, water treatment plant lagoons, dams). These stretches of
water cover substantial areas. Synergies with water can even go
beyond with side benefits such as preserving water resources by
cutting evaporation and preventing from algae growth.
.5
Future Technology Innovations from IBM
by IBM
The goal of cognitive computing is to get a computer to behave,
think and interact the way humans do. In 5 years, machines will
emulate human senses, each in their own special way.
Every year IBM makes
predictions about 5 technology innovations that stand to change
the way we live within the next 5 years.
Touch
In 5 years, you will be able to touch through your phone. IBM is
working on bringing a sense of touch to mobile devices, and bringing
together virtual and real world experiences for a number of industries
including retail. Shoppers will be able to "feel" the
texture and weave of a fabric or product by brushing their finger
over the item's image on a device's screen.
Sight
In 5 years, computers will not only be able to look at images, but
understand them. Computers will be trained to turn pictures and
videos into features, identifying things like color distribution,
texture patterns, edge information and motion information. A pixel
will be worth a thousand words.
Hearing
In 5 years, computers will hear what matters. Hearing systems of
the future will be trained by 'listening' to sounds and will use
this input to start detecting patterns and building models to decompose
sounds. Machines will be used to predict when a tree might fall
or to translate "baby talk" so parents understand if a
baby's fussing indicates hunger, tiredness or pain.
Taste
In 5 years, a computer system will know what you like to eat better
than you do. A machine that experiences flavor will determine the
precise chemical structure of food and why people like it. Not only
will it get you to eat healthier, but it will also surprise us with
unusual pairings of foods that are designed to maximize our experience
of taste and flavor. Digital taste buds will help you to eat smarter.
Smell
In 5 years, computers will have a sense of smell. We will see vast
advances where sensors will be equipped to smell potential diseases
that feed back into a cognitive system to tell us if they suspect
a possible health issue. Your phone will detect if you're coming
down with a cold or illness before you do.
Neil deGrasse Tyson is a rare breed of astrophysicist, one
who can speak as easily and brilliantly with popular audiences as
with professional scientists. Now that NASA has put human space
flight effectively on hold - with a five- or possibly ten-year delay
until the next launch of astronauts from U.S. soil - Tysons
views on the future of space travel and Americas role in that
future are especially timely and urgent. This book represents the
best of Tysons commentary, including a candid new introductory
essay on NASA and partisan politics, giving us an eye-opening manifesto
on the importance of space exploration for Americas economy,
security, and morale. Thanks to Tysons fresh voice and trademark
humor, his insights are as delightful as they are provocative, on
topics that range from the missteps that shaped our recent history
of space travel to how aliens, if they existed, might go about finding
us.
Hardy F. Schloer: 10-step program for a sick planet .
Hardy F. Schloer, Owner, Schloer Consulting Group -- SCG, Advisory
Board of the Club of Amsterdam.
Socratic Dialogue
Socratic Dialogue guided by Humberto Schwab, Philosopher,
Owner, Humberto Schwab Filosofia SL, Director, Club of Amsterdam
and the panel Huib Wursten, Senior Partner, ITIM International / Andrei
Kotov, Business Planning Manager, Projects & Technology
, Shell Upstream International / Jeanine van de Wiel, Group
Leader Global Regulatory Affairs, DSM Food Specialties / Oebele
Bruinsma, Founder & Partner, Synmind bv / Arjen Kamphuis,
Futurist, Co-founder, CTO, Gendo / Hardy F. Schloer, Owner,
Schloer Consulting Group - SCG, Advisory Board of the Club of Amsterdam
Video:
Winston Nanlohy
.The
SCG Global Trend Report
advert
Schloer
Consulting Group: SCG Global Trend Report (Version December
2012) is free. You
can order it by clicking here or
by sending an email to info@schloerconsulting.com
.Futurist
Portrait: Nicholas Negroponte
Nicholas Negroponte
delivering the Forrestal Lecture to the US Naval Academy in Annapolis,
MD, on April 15, 2009
Nicholas Negroponte is founder and chairman of the One
Laptop per Child
non-profit association. He is currently on leave from MIT, where
he was co-founder and director of the MIT
Media Laboratory,
and the Jerome B. Wiesner Professor of Media Technology. A graduate
of MIT, Nicholas was a pioneer in the field of computer-aided
design, and has been a member of the MIT faculty since 1966. Conceived
in 1980, the Media Laboratory opened its doors in 1985. He is
also author of the 1995 best seller, Being
Digital,
which has been translated into more than 40 languages.
Negroponte is an
active angel investor and has invested in over 30 startup companies
over the last 30 years, including Zagats, Wired, Ambient Devices,
Skype and Velti. He sits on several boards, including Motorola
(listed on the New York Stock Exchange) and Velti (listed on the
NASDAQ and formerly on the London Stock Exchange). He is also
on the advisory board of TTI/Vanguard. In August 2007, he was
appointed to a five-member special committee with the objective
of assuring the continued journalistic and editorial integrity
and independence of the Wall Street Journal and other Dow Jones
& Company publications and services. The committee was formed
as part of the merger of Dow Jones with News Corporation. Negroponte's
fellow founding committee members are Louis Boccardi, Thomas Bray,
Jack Fuller, and the late former Congresswoman Jennifer Dunn.
One Laptop Per Child
program has distributed more than 2.5 million computers to children
around the globe.
Nicholas: Everybody agrees that whatever the solutions are
to the big problems, they can never be without some element
of education.
"We have delivered fully loaded tablets to two villages in
Ethiopia, one per child, with no instruction or instructional
material whatsoever... Within minutes of arrival, the tablets
were unboxed and turned on by the kids themselves. After the first
week, on average, 47 apps were used per day. After week two, the
kids were playing games to race each other in saying the ABCs."
.Agenda
Season
Events 2012/2013
NEXT
Event
January
31,
2013 the
future
of
Space
Travel January
31,
2013,
18:30
-
21:15
Location:
Betty
Asfalt
Complex,
Nieuwezijds
Voorburgwal
282,
1012
RT
Amsterdam
Supported
by
India
House
Amsterdam
February
28,
2013
the
future
of
Football February
28,
2013,
18:30
-
21:15
Location:
Amsterdam
Supported
by
India
House
Amsterdam
March
28,
2013
the
future
of
March
28,
2013,
18:30
-
21:15
Location:
Amsterdam
April
25,
2013
the
future
of
April
25,
2013,
18:30
-
21:15
Location:
Amsterdam
May
30,
2013
the
future
of
May
30,
2013,
18:30
-
21:15
Location:
Amsterdam
June
27,
2013
the
future
of
Urban
Gardening June
27,
2013,
18:30
-
21:15
Location:
Geelvinck
Museum,
Keizersgracht
633,
1017
DS
Amsterdam
Supported
by
Geelvinck
Museum