In order to achieve EU renewable energy and CO2
emission reduction targets, significant amounts of wind energy
need to be integrated into Europe’s electricity system. This
report will analyse the technical, economic and regulatory issues
that need to be addressed in order to do so through a review of
the available literature, and examine how Europe can move towards
a more secure energy future through increased wind power production.
The report’s main conclusions are that the capacity of the
European power systems to absorb significant amounts of wind power
is determined more by economics and regulatory frameworks than
by technical or practical constraints. Larger scale penetration
of wind power faces barriers not because of the wind’s variability,
but because of inadequate infrastructure and interconnection coupled
with electricity markets where competition is neither effective
nor fair, with new technologies threatening traditional ways of
thinking and doing. Already today, it is generally considered
that wind energy can meet up to 20% of electricity demand on a
large electricity network without posing any serious technical
or practical problems.
When wind power penetration levels are low, grid operation will
not be affected to any significant extent. Today wind power supplies
more than 5% of overall EU electricity demand, but there are large
regional and national differences. The control methods and backup
available for dealing with variable demand and supply that are
already in place are more than adequate for dealing with wind
power supplying up to 20% of electricity demand, depending on
the specific system and geographical distribution. For higher
penetration levels, changes may be needed in power systems and
the way they are operated to accommodate more wind energy.
Experience with wind power in areas of Spain, Denmark, and Germany
that have large amounts of wind energy in the system, shows that
the question as to whether there is a potential upper limit for
renewable penetration into the existing grids will be an economic
and regulatory issue, rather than a technical one. For those areas
of Europe where wind power development is still in its initial
stages, many lessons can be learned from countries with growing
experience, as outlined in this report. However, it is important
that stakeholders, policy makers and regulators in emerging markets
realise that the issues that TSOs in Spain, Denmark and Germany
are faced with will not become a problem for them until much larger
amounts of wind power are connected to their national grids.
The issues related to wind power and grid integration mentioned
in this report are based on a detailed overview of best practices,
past experiences, descriptions and references to technical and
economic assessments. The report collects and presents detailed
facts and results, published in specialised literature, as well
as contributions from experts and actors in the sector. The aim
is to provide a useful framework for the current debates on integrating
wind power into the grid.
[...]
Conclusions
The modelling analysis backs up the theory that increased wind
power capacities will reduce power prices in the future European
power market system.
It has been estimated that if wind power capacity increases by
200 GW in 2020 (reaching a total of 265 GW), this would give a
merit order effect of €10.8/MWh, reducing the average wholesale
power price level from €85.8/MWh to €75/MWh.
However, this figure assumes a fully functioning market. It also
includes the long-term investments forecast and is therefore based
on the long-term market equilibrium. Simulated generation volumes
in 2020 require economic feasibility with regards to long run
marginal costs. Wind capacity replaces the least cost efficient
conventional capacities so that the system is in equilibrium.
This shift in the technology mix is the main reason for the observed
merit order effect.
In reality this might not always happen. Power market bids are
based on short run marginal costs, plants that are not cost efficient
might be needed in extreme situations, for example when there
is a lot of wind power on the system. The short-term effects of
wind power are mostly related to the variability of wind power.
The responding price volatility due to increased wind power stresses
the cost efficiency of wind power generation. And in the real
world, this would lead to a smaller merit order effect than analysed
in the future optimal market equilibrium.
Consequently, the results of the study have to be considered carefully,
especially considering the assumed future capacity mix, which
includes a lot of uncertainties. Moreover, results should not
be directly compared to recent literature, which usually estimate
the short-term price effects of wind power. Here the market is
not always in equilibrium and actual price differences and the
merit order effect might therefore be very different.
Moreover, the study estimates the volume merit order effect referring
to the total savings brought about due to wind power penetration
during a particular year. Assuming that the entire power demand
is purchased at the marginal cost of production, the overall volume
of the MOE has been calculated at €41.7 billion/year. But
this should not be seen as a purely socio-economic benefit. A
certain volume of this is redistributed from producer to consumer
because decreased prices mean less income for power producers.
Currently, only the long-term marginal generation which is replaced
by wind has a real economic benefit, and this should be contrasted
to the public support for extended wind power generation.
The scenarios were developed so that the modelling analysis could
show the effect of the additional wind capacities on future power
prices. For this reason, the main difference between the two scenarios
is the amount of wind capacity. All other renewable sources and
capacities have been kept at 2008 levels in both scenarios. Hence,
there is no future capacity increase assumed for bio-energy, solar
or geothermal energy resources. This, however, does not reflect
a very realistic market development. A higher renewable share
would influence the abatement costs to reach the defined CO2
emissions cap. Indirectly, this would also influence investment
decisions in conventional fossil based technologies, especially
in the Reference scenarios. However, it is difficult to estimate
the outcome on the merit order effect. Lower emission levels and
hence lower carbon prices might also lead to coal power becoming
more cost-efficient. This might counteract the effect of renewables
on emissions. It is therefore recommended that these impacts be
studied in a more thorough sensitivity analysis with the help
of a quantifying modelling tool.
The sensitivity analysis resulted in an increase of the merit
order effect by €1.9 /MWh when fossil fuel prices (gas, coal
and oil) are increased by 25%. In the High fuel price case, wind
power makes the power price drop from €87.7/MWh in the Reference
scenario to €75/MWh in the Wind scenario. Comparing the resulting
merit order effect in the High fuel case of €12.7/MWh to
the Base case results of €10.8/MWh,the 25% higher fuel price
case gives a merit order effect that is 17.5% higher.
The study showed that fuel prices have a major influence on power
prices and marginal cost levels. The merit order effect has been
mostly explained by the difference in the technology capacity
and generation mix in the various scenarios, especially the differences
in the development and utilisation of coal and gas power technologies.
Investigating fuel price differences is therefore highly relevant.
However, even stronger impacts on the merit order effect might
be observed by changing the relative price differences of gas
and coal price levels.
The study proved that carbon market assumptions and especially
the resulting carbon price level will be a very important variable
for the future power market and its price levels. Regarding the
sensitivity of the assumed GHG emissions reduction target, the
analysis illustrated higher equilibrium prices for the 30% reduction
case than for the 20% reduction base case.
However, the results of the sensitivity analysis do very much
depend on the assumptions for future abatement potential and costs
in all EU ETS sectors, as well as in the industrial sectors.
Location: Hogeschool
van Amsterdam,
Auditorium, Singelgrachtgebouw, Rhijnspoorplein
1, 1091 GC Amsterdam
[corner Wibautstraat and Mauritskade] registration more
information
Bouke de Vries,
Senior Economist, Economic Research Department, Rabobank Nederland Strengths of the cooperative model - a more effective value
proposition for clients?
Dave Rietveld,
Manager Innovation, Equens Transparency of financial settlement - rethinking the value
proposition of institutions
Hans Hintzen,
Hintzen Legal Services The Ratio of Leverage
Moderated by John
Grüter, Owner, Digital Knowledge
.Hatsune
Miku - pop star as a 3-D hologram
Japan's newest singing
sensation is a... Hologram.
Hatsune Miku is a
singing synthesizer application and its female character, developed
by Crypton
Future Media. It uses Yamaha Corporation's Vocaloid
synthesizing technology. The name of the character comes from
a fusion of the Japanese for first, sound and future sounds like
a nanori reading of future, normally read as "mirai",
referring to her position as the first of Crypton's "Character
Vocal Series". Her voice is sampled from Japanese voice actress
Saki Fujita. Hatsune Miku has performed onstage in what appears
to be a dynamic hologram.
Vocaloid is a singing synthesizer application, with its signal
processing part developed through a joint research project between
the Pompeu Fabra University in Spain and the Yamaha Corporation,
who backed the developement financially - and later developed
the software into the commerical product "Vocaloid".
The software enables users to synthesize singing by typing in
lyrics and melody. It uses synthesizing technology with specially
recorded vocals of voice actors or singers. To create a song,
the user must input the melody and lyrics. A piano roll type interface
is used to input the melody and the lyrics can be entered on each
note. The software can change the stress of the pronunciations,
add effects such as vibrato, or change the dynamics and tone of
the voice. Each Vocaloid is sold as "a singer in a box"
designed to act as a replacement for an actual singer. The software
is available in English and Japanese, although a Chinese version
was produced for Sonika.
Hatsune Miku was
released on August 31st, 2007. And since then, there have been
more than 30,000 songs and movies about Hatsune Miku were posted
in a popular Video sharing web site such as YouTube and Nico-Nico-Douga
(Japan).
This video is copyrighted
by Crypton Future Media.
The
European Environment - State and Outlook 2010
SOER 2010 provides a set of assessments of the current state of
Europe's environment, its likely future state, what is being done
and what could be done to improve it, how global megatrends might
affect future trends… and more.
Environmental policy in
the European Union and its neighbours has delivered substantial improvements
to the state of the environment. However, major environmental challenges
remain which will have significant consequences for Europe if left
unaddressed.
Grow
Food Year Round With Hydroponics
Windowfarms are vertical, hydroponic, modular, low-energy, high-yield
edible window gardens built using low-impact or recycled local materials.
The Windowfarms Project operates in what seems a small niche, but
the team hopes it might be what Buckminster Fuller would call a
"trim tab," a small part that turns giant ships by being
particularly well placed. Growing some portion of one's own food
is a simple pleasure that can make a big difference in one's relationship
with nature. As we choose nutrients to feed plants we hope to eat
in turn, we gain experience with a nearly-lost fundamental human
art, get a microcosmic view of the food system, develop a stake
in the conversation, and come up with new ideas for how to take
care of ourselves and our planet in troubled times.
.Urbee
Hybrid - the first car to have entire body 3D printed
Social media has democratized influence, forever changing the way
businesses communicate with customers and the way customers affect
the decisions of their peers. With platforms like Twitter, YouTube,
and Facebook, anyone can now find and connect with others who share
similar interests, challenges, and beliefs-creating communities
that shape and steer the perception of brands. Without engagement
in these communities, we miss major opportunities to shape our marketing
messages.
However, use of the
tools does not guarantee that people will listen. Engagement is
shaped by the interpretation of its intentions. In order for social
media to mutually benefit you and your customers, you must engage
them in meaningful and advantageous conversations, empowering them
as true participants in your marketing and service efforts.
With Engage! as your
guide, you can effectively compete in this new era of digital Darwinism
while engendering the support of online champions. Social and participatory
media significantly contribute to the success of every modern business,
and with this book, you will find out how to:
Create a space in
the online ecosystem that truly represents your business and cultivates
your customers’ loyalty and trust
Participate in the
unique culture of each available social media platform to engage
your customers
Establish an organizational
structure that constantly targets the next new media trend
Attract online champions
and change agents who will uncover the social networks you need
to reach and the influencers who will help build your reputation
in the networked world
Consistently adapt
your company to market needs and trends based on the invaluable
connections you forge and the empathy and insight you garner in
the process
There are thousands
of customers waiting to hear from you about your business and vision.
It’s the minimum ante to create a vibrant and loyal online
community. When you engage, you will build an authoritative social
network that increases your visibility, relevance, influence, and
profitability. It’s time to Engage!
.Learning
Robots
Robots playing Ping-Pong Robot Learning Lab Department for Empirical Inference &
Machine Learning (AG Schoelkopf)
Max Planck Institute for Biological Cybernetics
Our research centers around the goal of bringing advanced motor
skills to robotics using techniques from machine learning and
optimal control. Please check out our research or contact any
of our lab members.
Creating autonomous
robots that can learn to assist humans in situations of daily
life is a fascinating challenge for machine learning. While this
aim has been a long-standing vision of artificial intelligence
and the cognitive sciences, we have yet to achieve the first step
of creating robots that can learn to accomplish many different
tasks triggered by environmental context or higher-level instruction.
The goal of our robot learning laboratory is the investigation
of the ingredients for such a general approach to motor skill
learning, to get closer towards human-like performance in robotics.
We thus focus on the solution of basic problems in robotics while
developing domain- appropriate machine-learning methods.
Bionic Learning Network
Inspired by nature: Festo pursues its “Biomechatronic Footprint”
– biological principles providing a new impetus for technical
and industrial applications – in cooperation with renowned
universities, institutes and development companies.
From human muscle to flight simulator The principle of tensing and relaxing muscles has been used
for several practical applications – e.g. for the Airmotion_ride
simulator, where pneumatic muscles ensure flowing movements.
From fish fin to gripper
Under pressure, fins bulge out in the direction of the applied
force. The Fin Ray Effect uses this principle in applications
such as the Bionic Tripod and the FinGripper.
Don
Tapscott, one of the world’s leading authorities
on business strategy, is Chairman of nGenera Insight. He was founder
and chairman of the international think tank New Paradigm before
its acquisition by nGenera.
Don is an internationally
sought writer, consultant and speaker on business strategy and
organizational transformation. He has given more than 400 keynotes
speeches and presentations over the past five years. His clients
include top executives of many of the world’s largest corporations
and government leaders from many countries. The Washington Technology
Report called him one of the most influential media authorities
since Marshall McLuhan.
Don is the author
of thirteen widely read books about information technology in
business and society, with his fourteenth book Macrowikinomics:
Rebooting Business and the World, co-authored by Anthony D. Williams,
due to be released in September 2010. Macrowikinomics is the follow
up to Wikinomics: How Mass Collaboration Changes Everything (2006)
co-authored by Anthony D. Williams. Wikinomics was an international
bestseller, #1 on the 2007 management book charts, and on The
New York Times and BusinessWeek bestseller lists. Translated into
20 languages, Wikinomics was a finalist for the prestigious Financial
Times/Goldman Sachs Best Business Book Award and was chosen as
one of the best books of the year by a number of publications,
including The Economist.
Don’s other
well-known books include: Paradigm Shift: The New Promise of Information
Technology (1992); The Digital Economy: Promise and Peril in the
Age of Networked Intelligence (1995); Growing Up Digital (1998);
Digital Capital: Harnessing the Power of Business Webs (2000);
The Naked Corporation: How the Age of Transparency Will Revolutionize
Business (2003) and Grown Up Digital (2008).
Don is a frequent
writer for the Huffington Post, The Wall Street Journal, New York
Times, Forbes, Business 2.0, The Financial Times, USA Today, and
BusinessWeek, and has been interviewed and quoted widely in the
broadcast media including CNN, NBC, CBS, NPR, and the BBC.
Don is Adjunct Professor
of Management, Joseph L. Rotman School of Management, University
of Toronto. He holds a B.Sc. in Psychology and Statistics, an
M.Ed. specializing in Research Methodology, and three Doctor of
Laws (Hon) granted from the University of Alberta in 2001, Trent
University in 2006 and McMaster University in 2010. He is involved
extensively in the transformation of education, working with many
universities, school boards and Educational Secretaries and Ministers
around the world. He is also working with government leaders around
the world to reinvent government for the digital era and strengthen
democratic institutions. He is a Fellow of the World Economic
Forum.
Deeply committed
to the issue of mental health, Mr. Tapscott is a former member
of the Board of Trustees at the Clarke Institute of Psychiatry
and was Chair of the Centered on Hope Campaign for the Center
for Addiction and Mental Health Foundation. He is a founding member
and a member of the committee of Advisers of the Business &
Economic Roundtable on Addiction & Mental Health. He and his
wife, Ana P. Lopes, are the benefactors of the Tapscott Chair
in Schizophrenia Studies at the University of Toronto. He was
Chair of the 1999-2001 Trent University Beyond Our Walls Capital
Fundraising Campaign.
Macrowikinomics
- bonus
.Agenda
OurSeason
Program 2010/2011
January 20,
2011
18:30 - 21:15
the
future of Financial Infrastructure What influence will the crises have on financial services and
products?
Location:Deloitte,
Orlyplein 10, 1043 DP Amsterdamutr
tr
February 17,
2011
18:30 - 21:15
the
future of Services
Location: Info.nl, Sint Antoniesbreestraat 16, 1011 HB Amsterdam
March 17, 2011
18:30 - 21:15
the
future of Energy
Location: Shell Technology Centre Amsterdam, Grasweg 31, 1031 HW Amsterdam
April 14, 2011
18:30 - 21:15
the
future of the Human Mind
May 19, 2011
18:30 - 21:15
the
future of Singularity
June 23, 2011
18:30 - 21:15
the
future of European Democracy
.Contact
Your
comments, ideas, articles are welcome!
Please write to Felix Bopp, Editor-in-Chief: editor@clubofamsterdam.com
Club
of Amsterdam Journal.
