founder and managing director, PerspeXo
at our event:
Tradional banking was for the priviliged only,
and in most countries it still is a premium good to be a bank's client.
The last few years have witnessed a commoditization of financial services.
With the smart people and smart money of haute finance turning out not
to be so smart - and loosing around 300 billion USD in just a few months
time - this process might be accelerating and leading to the downgrading
of financial services to a commodity good from their former position
of a high quility premium good. Wth the transfer of the premium know
how of the industry a host of smaller companies might be able to take
advantage of this trend. Annegien Blokpoel will address in her presentation
the changes in the financial industry and provide a window to potential
scenarios for the global financial services industry
would like to thank our supporters Info.nl
executives identify 12 key risks for the next decade
An increase in protectionism
and the emergence of disruptive new business models are among
the top risks facing firms over the next decade, according to
Risk 2018: Planning for an unpredictable decade,
a newly-released Economist
Intelligence Unit survey and report, sponsored by BT.
The report is based on a survey by the Economist Intelligence
Unit of more than 600 board-level executives, in which respondents
were questioned about their perception of the likelihood and severity
of 46 risks, and asked how prepared they believed their organisations
would be to face them. Responses were aggregated and mapped onto
a grid (see below), with the importance of each risk (a combination
of its severity and likelihood) represented on one axis and levels
of preparedness among companies on the other. The survey highlighted
12 risks as tier one in nature. They are of particular
concern because they combined high levels of severity and likelihood
with relatively low levels of preparedness. The risks identified
as tier two were classed as such owing to either the
low perceived severity and impact of the risk, or because of very
high levels of preparedness. The 12 tier one risks
globalisation/increase in protectionism
Oil price shock
Asset price collapse
Emergence of disruptive
the Middle East
from emerging market companies
Given these threats,
the report goes on to examine the various ways in which companies
can manage potential risks and plan for the future.
a highly uncertain business environment, executives are seeking
guidance on how major trends and risks might affect their business
over the next decade," says Rob Mitchell, editor of the report.
"By comparing perceived levels of severity and likelihood
with levels of preparedness for a diverse set of risks, our survey
illustrates a number of areas where risk managers and executives
might need to sharpen their focus over the next ten years."
chief executive of BT Global Services said: This report
highlights the sheer breadth of risks that are now primary boardroom
concerns. Globalisation is driving risk management to become an
issue of strategic importance. Companies that integrate their
risk planning and infrastructures will be more resilient and will
reap the rewards in this more complex trading environment.
Other key findings
of the report include:
Climate change is
not seen as a particularly severe risk, or one that is likely
to cause an impact over the next ten years. Despite widespread
media and governmental attention on climate change, respondents
do not expect environmental risks to be particularly severe over
the coming decade. However, the fact that the majority of respondents
exhibited a low level of preparation towards climate change means
that it has been classified as a "tier one" risk.
are seen as both a threat and an opportunity. Respondents expect
increased competition from emerging markets to be a major worry
over the coming decade, but they also see many of these countries
as a key source of growth. The majority of those surveyed named
China as the country where they expect to see the biggest increase
in revenue contribution, followed by Europe (including Eastern
Europe) and Asia-Pacific (excluding India and China).
is a widely used tool to consider future risks. As companies look
to an uncertain and unpredictable future, more and more are using
techniques such as scenario planning to help them map out the
road ahead. Among our survey respondents, 26% say that they use
scenario planning on a regular basis and 41% say that they use
it on an ad hoc basis. Out of the remainder, 29% say that they
have plans to use the technique in the future.
Risk management will
become a more strategic activity. The trend for risk management
to be considered a strategic activity is expected to continue
into the next decade, with two-thirds of respondents saying this
area will become more important as a strategic tool, and 58% expecting
it to command more attention from the boardroom.
Risk 2018: Planning
for an unpredictable decade
is available free to download: click
future of Money Thursday,
18:30-19:00, Conference: 19:00-21:15 Tickets
de Burcht van Berlage, Henri Polaklaan 9, 1018 CP Amsterdam
[near Artis Zoo] The speakers and topics
founder and managing director, PerspeXo Sharing
or commoditisation, trends in finance
Futurist, Trend Analyst, The Future Institute Will attention be the next currency?
Senior Manager, PricewaterhouseCoopers Virtual economies present real challenges
Stumpel, Result Strategy,
Cellspace, Xing, Ideabroker, LBI, GetMobile, TCS, Mendix, FON
UAE's most futuristic planning is its creation of a whole new city
from scratch, centered on an institute of technology modeled after,
and created in collaboration with, MIT. The new city, Masdar, is
perhaps the most ambitious attempt in the world today to create
a community with a total net energy use of zero - without sacrificing
any of the amenities of modern technology. Carbon emissions and
waste output are also intended to be kept at or near zero.
The city, designed
to house 50,000 people with the Masdar Institute of Science and
Technology at its center, will be completely car-free, with walkways
and personal transportation systems instead of roads and parking
garages. Some of the walkways will be topped with solar panels,
which will offer shade from the blistering tropical sun while also
providing electricity for the city.
"Agriculture is not just about putting things in the ground
and then harvesting them it is increasingly about the social
and environmental variables that will in large part determine
the future capacity of agriculture to provide for eight or nine
billion people in a manner that is sustainable" - Achim
Steiner, Executive Director, UNEP
The way the world
grows its food will have to change radically to better serve the
poor and hungry if the world is to cope with a growing population
and climate change while avoiding social breakdown and environmental
collapse. That is the message from the report of the International
Assessment of Agricultural Science and Technology for Development,
a major new report by over 400 scientists.
The assessment was
considered by 64 governments at an intergovernmental plenary in
Johannesburg last week.
The authors' brief
was to examine hunger, poverty, the environment and equity together.
Professor Robert Watson Director of IAASTD said those on the margins
are ill-served by the present system: "The incentives for
science to address the issues that matter to the poor are weak...
the poorest developing countries are net losers under most trade
has brought significant increases in food production. But the
benefits have been spread unevenly and have come at an increasingly
intolerable price, paid by small-scale farmers, workers, rural
communities and the environment.
It says the willingness
of many people to tackle the basics of combining production, social
and environmental goals is marred by "contentious political
and economic stances". One of the IAASTD co-chairs, Dr Hans
Herren, explains: "Specifically, this refers to the many
OECD member countries who are deeply opposed to any changes in
trade regimes or subsidy systems. Without reforms here many poorer
countries will have a very hard time... "
The report has assessed
that the way to meet the challenges lies in putting in place institutional,
economic and legal frameworks that combine productivity with the
protection and conservation of natural resources like soils, water,
forests, and biodiversity while meeting production needs.
In many countries,
it says, food is taken for granted, and farmers and farm workers
are in many cases poorly rewarded for acting as stewards of almost
a third of the Earth's land. Investment directed toward securing
the public interest in agricultural science, education and training
and extension to farmers has decreased at a time when it is most
The authors have
assessed evidence across a wide range of knowledge that is rarely
brought together. They conclude we have little time to lose if
we are to change course. Continuing with current trends would
exhaust our resources and put our children's future in jeopardy.
Professor Bob Watson,
Director of IAASTD said: "To argue, as we do, that continuing
to focus on production alone will undermine our agricultural capital
and leave us with an increasingly degraded and divided planet
is to reiterate an old message. But it is a message that has not
always had resonance in some parts of the world. If those with
power are now willing to hear it, then we may hope for more equitable
policies that do take the interests of the poor into account."
Professor Judi Wakhungu,
said "We must cooperate now, because no single institution,
no single nation, no single region, can tackle this issue alone.
The time is now."
is often criticized for failing to reflect adequately the value
of clean air and water, species diversity, and social and generational
equity. By excluding biophysical and social systems from their analyses,
many conventional economists overlook problems of the increasing
scale of human impacts and the inequitable distribution of resources.
is an introductory-level textbook for an emerging paradigm that
addresses this flaw in much economic thought. The book defines a
revolutionary "transdiscipline" that incorporates insights
from the biological, physical, and social sciences, and it offers
a pedagogically complete examination of this exciting new field.
The book provides students with a foundation in traditional neoclassical
economic thought, but places that foundation within a new interdisciplinary
framework that embraces the linkages among economic growth, environmental
degradation, and social inequity.
OR is a vortex-shaped surface which reacts to sunlight.
The polygonal segments of the surface react to ultra-violet light,
mapping the position and intensity of solar rays. When in the
shade, the segments of OR are translucent white. However, when
hit by sunlight they become coloured, flooding the space below
with different hues of light. At night, OR transforms into an
enormous 'chandelier', disseminating light into the surrounding
courtyard, an atmospheric space for events and gatherings.
The hues generated
by the photoreactive surface are therefore indicators of changes
in weather and daylight, a dynamic architectural tool that can
be used on building exteriors. OR is skin, OR is shining, OR is
the light OR the shade.
OR is the first time
that photoreactive technology has been used on an architectural
scale. The ecological structure is a step in exploring the possibilities
of photoreactive materials in the fields of furniture and design.
The beauty of OR is its constant interaction with the elements.
Each moment of the day is unique.
The project was developed
by the architects and designers Ran Ankori, Francesco Brenta,
Maya Carni, Christoph Klemmt, Laura Micalizzi and Elisa Oddone.
The full service internet agency Info.nl
creates successful and effective websites and online applications.
The work of Info.nl is based on the business objectives of our
clients, customer expectations and the use of ICT technology.
To enable to serve our clients in our different fields of expertise,
Info.nl is divided in three areas of expertise with their own
specific competence and focus. Our strategy consultants develop
online strategies and concepts, while the unit web development
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hosting facilities maintains (24/7) web environments.
Since 1994, Info.nl
has a proven track record. Respected clients as e.g. Robeco, SNS
Bank, VolkskrantBanen, ReedBusiness, T-Mobile and Routenet are
organizations which benefit from the experience of Info.nl. www.info.nl
Portrait: Peter Schwartz
Peter Schwartz is cofounder and chairman of Global
Business Network, a Monitor Group company, and a partner
of the Monitor Group, a family of professional services firms
devoted to enhancing client competitiveness. An internationally
renowned futurist and business strategist, Peter specializes in
scenario planning, working with corporations, governments, and
institutions to create alternative perspectives of the future
and develop robust strategies for a changing and uncertain world.
His current research and scenario work encompasses energy resources
and the environment, technology, telecommunications, media and
entertainment, aerospace, and national security. Peter is also
a venture partner of San Francisco-based Alta Partners, a member
of the Council on Foreign Relations, and a member of the board
of trustees of the Santa Fe Institute, the Long Now Foundation,
and the World Affairs Council.
From 1982 to 1986, Peter headed scenario planning for the Royal
Dutch/Shell Group of Companies in London. His team conducted comprehensive
analyses of the global business and political environment and
worked with senior management to create successful strategies.
Before joining Royal Dutch/Shell, Peter directed the Strategic
Environment Center at SRI International. The Center researched
the business milieu, lifestyles, and consumer values, and conducted
scenario planning for corporate and government clients.
Peter is the author
Surprises (Gotham, 2003), a provocative look
at the dynamic forces at play in the world today and their implications
for business and society. His first book, The Art of the
Long View (Doubleday Currency, 1991; audio tape, 1995; paperback,
1996), is considered a seminal publication on scenario planning
and has been translated into multiple languages. He is also
the co-author of The Long Boom (Perseus, 1999), a vision
for the world characterized by global openness, prosperity,
and discovery; When Good Companies Do Bad Things (Wiley,
1999), an examination of, and argument for, corporate social
responsibility; and China's Futures (Jossey-Bass, 2001),
which describes very different scenarios for China and their
international implications. He publishes and lectures widely
and served as a script consultant on the films "The Minority
Report," "Deep Impact," "Sneakers,"
and "War Games." Peter received a B.S. in aeronautical
engineering and astronautics from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute.
- The Threat of "Abrupt Climate Change"
Season Events are on Thursdays
Registration: 18:30-19:00, Conference: 19:00-21:15
18:30 - 21:15
future of Money
de Burcht van Berlage, Henri Polaklaan 9, 1018 CP Amsterdam [near
18:30 - 21:15
future of Children Learning
to Play - How kids today are shaping the future of a paricipatory
Heinkade 179, second floor, 1019 HC Amsterdam