March 2010, Issue 126
regards The Netherlands can be considered a country of sport, not
only on account of its large sporting population but also because
of a fair number of companies in the sports and leisure industry.
Still, the potential for innovation in this industry are not always
fully realised as athletes, businessmen and scientists are not maximizing
their cooperating during the development stage of innovation in sport.
the importance of sustainability during the design and development
of a sports venue contributes no only to our environment but ensures
that the venue is positive contribution so the surrounding community.
after they were held in Amsterdam, The Netherlands have indicated
a desire to host the Summer Olympic games in 2028. Both Amsterdam
and Rotterdam are now looking at the feasibility of a bid. For Amsterdam,
the challenge will be tremendous.
Join our next event - share your thoughts
future of Sports
Felix Bopp, editor-in-chief
Innovation & Sports
A visionary football by
'CTRUS functional principle is based on the mechanical properties
of its materials. it is composed by an inner structure (skelle-core)
and an outer net-embedded shell, made out of reinforced elastomers.
these pieces have different durometer according to its structural
location. the flexibility provided by its materials, emulates
the bounce of an inflated pneumatic soccer ball, but offers the
advantage of not loosing air. CTRUS doesnt need air in order
CTRUS provides added functionality controlled by the electronic
components in its nucleus which communicate wirelessly with control
stations at the stadium:
- inner light,
color changes at critical game situations (goal, offside and
out of bounds).
- recording of kick
force and travel speed.
- location of the
ball relative to the court (interactive detection system via
GPS / RFID).
- P.O.V. camera
footage (software stabilized image).
Innovative new skateboard controller
Put on your helmet and prepare to be introduced to
Production of Images based on Distributed and Intelligent Sensing
The software allows cameras to track both the ball and the players
simultaneously, estimating which camera captures a more detailed
picture. One interesting thing about this invention is that it
can be adjusted according to viewers' demands. For instance, the
APIDIS can track certain players.
future of Sports
Thursday, March 25, 2010
Registration: 18:30-19:00, Conference: 19:00-21:15
van Amsterdam - School of Sports and Nutrition,
Auditorium, Dr. Meurerlaan 8, 1067
Technology & Innovation
Sport Facilities & Sustainability
Program Advisor, Olympic Ambitions, Topstad Amsterdam
Amsterdam's Olympic bid in 2028
moderated by John
Business Development Manager,
The digital production
company qosmo teamed up
design architects to create N Building.
N Building is a commercial structure located near Tachikawa station
amidst a shopping district. Being a commercial building signs
or billboards are typically attached to its facade which we feel
undermines the structures' identity. As a solution they use a
QR Code as the facade itself. QR Code is a matrix code (or two-dimensional
bar code). QR Codes are common in Japan. By reading the QR Code
with your mobile device you will be taken to a site which includes
up to date shop information. In this manner a cityscape is unhindered
by ubiquitous signage and is also an improvement to the quality
and accuracy of the information itself.
The building is detected in real time by its shape (for an example,
see video). Characters are then superimposed over the live video.
Twitter feed comments are located via GPS tagging. Store information,
reservations and other infrastructure is part of the iPhone application.
of Amsterdam blog
of Amsterdam blog
March 6: The
world needs a new taxation paradigm
March 3: Transformative
January 8: Mobile
October 6: ... Just as Beauty lies in the Eyes
of the Beholder … is Wisdom found in the Mind of the Receiver
21: Future Connectivity: Healthcare Revolution
for Community Development
August 5: Music 3.0 and the rocky pre-media past
about the Future
Condor dynamic social network analysis tool puts the full power
of collective prediction at your fingertips. Condor permits you
to run highly customized queries, zooming in on precisely the data
sources at the time intervals that make most sense and are most
valuable for you.
Condor permits to zoom
in on e-Mail archives, online mailing lists, and various Internet
sources and to only analyze the Web sites, blogs, and online forums
that matter for you.
As output, Condor generates
movies of social networks, many different social network metrics
(betweenness, degree, density, contribution index, etc.) and also
permits to export data to Excel and other statistics packages such
as Matlab, SPSS, or SAS.
economic impact of noise pollution on human health
traffic noise and the wider spread of a 24 hour society have contributed
to rising complaints about disturbance and annoyance caused by noise.
In addition, there is growing evidence of a link between noise pollution
and ill health. However, in the UK, as an example, there is no agreed
method for assessing and valuing the impact of noise on human health.
There is therefore a need for statistically reliable information
which robustly links noise exposure to a specific health problem
to enable policy makers to assess the economic impact of higher
environmental noise levels on health when developing noise management
This study investigated the current state of evidence for potential
health effects caused by exposure to noise. The health impacts considered
were annoyance, mental health effects, cardiovascular (heart and
blood vessels) effects, sleep disturbances, delayed language and
reading skills in children and hearing impairment. With the exception
of mental health, the study found that there was sufficient evidence
to link noise exposure with adverse health effects.
Sports Event Management, Second Edition: Olympic Edition (Hospitality,
Leisure and Tourism)
The hosting of sports events - whether large international events,
or smaller niche interest events - has huge and long-lasting impacts
on the local environment, economy and industry.
Strategic Sports Event
Management: Olympic edition provides students and event managers
with an insight into the strategic management of sports events of
all scales and nature. The framework offers a planning process that
can be used to understand the importance of a strategic approach,
and shows how to implement strategies that can achieve successful
sports events over the short and long-term.
The text uses new international
case studies throughout to offer real-world insight in both larger
and smaller events. Plus, in this new Olympic edition, we see the
introduction of a Beijing Olympiad case study in each chapter. Through
this topical and timely addition to the text, we can understand
the lessons to be learned by events mangers of events of all sizes.
Written by an experienced author and using first-hand research the
text looks at:
- The organisations
involved such as the IOC, FIFA and IAAF, and their interactions
with charities, the media and promoters.
- The short-term and
long-term benefits of the planning process
- Evaluating the event,
its impacts and legacies
- Operational strategies
including finance, ticketing, transport, venues, IT, communications,
equipment and personnel
- The bidding process
and what is required for a successful bid
on the future of TOURISM
on the future of TOURISM
2-day lab in the Alt Emporda in Catalonia, Spain. A unique place.
Date: May 25 & 26, 2010
Emporda in Catalonia, Spain
language is English.
For 8 - 12 participants.
Strategic leaders and innovators in the travel and tourism
What will they
Output: strong validated future scenarios for developing new businesses.
Strong concepts to innovate. New services made concrete.
Outcome: new tools
to innovate and collaborate.
price, supplies and the megatons to megawatts
by Michael Akerib,
Adjunct Professor at the University of Geneva
has increasingly been proposed as the solution to the expected mounting
energy shortfall due to population and economic growth, particularly
in Asia. Nuclear energy has also been vaunted as a low carbon emitter
compared to fossil fuels although construction of a power plant
is a non-negligible carbon emitter as well as a major capital investment
although Russia has developed smaller, less expensive, nuclear power
plants. Further, nuclear fuel can be recycled, although ultimately
there is a problem with the disposal of radioactive waste.
While today nuclear
energy represents approximately 17% of the energy produced worldwide,
it is expected to increase, due to the reasons outline above.
In France, three quarters of the energy produced is derived from
While 53 nuclear
power plants are presently under construction, the US Energy Department
forecasts that 1 000 plants will be in operation worldwide by
2050. Various incentive schemes have been set up, including loan
guarantees from the government for US utilities and the introduction
of cap-and-trade systems that would increase the cost of energy
production from hydrocarbons.
While uranium is
by no means a rare element, it is often insufficiently concentrated
to warrant mining. Thus, uranium production remains concentrated,
with eight countries accounting for 93% of the production. In
descending order of importance, these are Kazakhstan, Canada,
Australia, Russia, Niger, Namibia, Uzbekistan and the USA. Eight
mining companies account for 80% of the extraction. The five main
ones are Cameco, Rio Tinto, Areva, KazAtomProm and ARMZ-TVEL.
Reserves are not
known with great precision since the lack of interest in nuclear
power as a source of energy during a couple of decades thwarted
any effort to look for new deposits. The element being abundant,
and market prices rather low, only large economic deposits have
Low, and highly volatile,
uranium prices, red tape or even total mining ban as was the case
in Australia, and high operational costs due to safety requirements,
have discouraged investments in new mines. Commercially mining
a deposit takes 8 to 10 years from the end of the geological survey
and the raising of the required capital.
Prices have seesawed
from a low of US$ 10 to reach $ 95 in March 2007 as nuclear plant
operators started a storage cycle in an industry used to 'buy-and-hold'
strategies particularly in periods of low interest rates. Spot
prices even reach $ 138 in June 2007 as speculators become net
buyers. However, as credit tightens, they liquidate positions
and prices plunge to US$ 40 in April 2009. Prices have started
climbing again since May 2009.
While the nuclear
lobby has minimized the importance of these price fluctuations,
insisting that the price of uranium only represents 8% of the
operational costs of a nuclear power plant, they miss the point
that there is a major imbalance in the demand - supply relationship
of the fissile material and that even in the bullish phase, world
production hardly increased.
With demand outpacing
supply, and the gap forecast to increase as annual demand is expected
to escalate from slightly over 13 000 to over 27 000 tons.
With mining output
unable to ramp up in such a short period, additional quantities
have had a diverse origin, and more particularly, recycling of
spent fuel, enrichment of spent tails and decommissioning of nuclear
Highly enriched uranium
(HEU) is extracted from the warheads. It contains 20 to 90% uranium-235
(U-235). It is blended with uranium containing low level of U-235
thus produced low-enriched uranium (LEU) containing less than
5% U-235. It is then blended with depleted uranium, partially
enriched uranium or natural uranium. The blending-down of 500
tons of Russian HEU leads to 15 000 tons of LEU, representing
two years of demand.
The situation is
likely to worsen if the various nuclear plant projects are commissioned
and particularly if the availability of HEU is put into question
as the Megaton to Megawatts (MtM) agreement, signed in 1993, expires
in 2013. Russia has indicated it is reluctant to renew the agreement,
at least under its present terms, since it wishes to keep some
of the HEU for its own use and sell the exported material directly
to utilities. Negotiations, which are directly linked to the amount
of missiles to be decommissioned in the new SALT treaty presently
being discussed, revolve around allowing Russia to provide directly
up to 20% of the requirements from US utilities - approximately
50% of quantities shipped - of enriched uranium from 2014 to 2020
with a free access at the end of that period. Any sales from Russia
for initial cores in the period 2014 to 2020 would be exempted
from the quota. Also exempted from the quota would be quantities
processed in the US for re-export.
The world stockpiles
of weapons-grade plutonium (a substitute product to uranium) is
estimated to be around 260 tons which, when diluted, would be
the equivalent of one year of primary uranium production. Plutonium
is blended with uranium oxide to form so-called Mixed Oxide Fuel
(MOX). MOX fuels 50% of the nuclear power plant capacity in the
US, thus representing 10% of electricity production.
The MtM agreement
originated in 1987 when the USA and the USSR agreed to reduce
their nuclear arsenal by 80%, but it really only came into effect
in 1993. Under this agreement, 500 tons of HEU are to be diluted
by Tenex and delivered to USEC, a US corporation. USEC, in turn,
dilutes it to LEU (Low Enriched Uranium) for resale to nuclear
Over the life of
the contract, 15 000 tons of LEU will have been delivered, the
equivalent of 152 000 tons of natural uranium, slightly over two
years of demand. Russia, however, has also become a major user
of this fuel and a large number of nuclear power plant projects
are under study and therefore the country's needs are set to increase
The START negotiations
presently underway in Geneva will determine if further, and how
many, missiles are to be dismantled, and therefore how much plutonium
is likely to find its way in the nuclear fuel cycle. While the
negotiations have been advancing at a snail's pace, a compromise
Russia, in association
with Kazakhstan, created in 2007 the International Uranium Enrichment
Center (IUEC) located at the Angarsk Electrolytic Chemical Combine.
It is also expected to become the basis of the World Bank for
Uranium, which counts Mr Warren Buffet as an investor, and which
would be run as a for-profit venture. The Bank would enrich uranium
and supply it to those customers meeting specified requirements.
It has recently proposed to enrich the Iranian low enriched material
to upgrade it to civilian use as fuel.
The project fits
well with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) plan to
globalize the nuclear fuel cycle as Russia has indicated that
the capital of the IUEC would be open to all interested parties
but that it would remain the majority shareholder with 51% of
the shares. The other shareholders at present are Kazakhstan and
Armenia with 10% of the shares each, with the Ukraine having signed
a letter of intent to subscribe to 10% of the shares. In spite
of its promotional efforts, it has been unable to interest other
Other countries have
expressed interest in creating IUEC-type organizations on their
territory. In 2006, the Nuclear Threat Initiative, a US institution,
pledged US$ 50 million for the creation of a low-enriched uranium
bank to be owned and managed by the International Atomic Energy
Agency (IAEA). The US Congress, as well as other countries, have
pledged a total of US$ 100 million to that purpose. However, major
decisions such as location, pricing and type of fuel stored, have
not yet been taken.
Without the slightest
doubt, Russia and Kazakhstan are positioning themselves to play
a major role in determining the price of uranium in the years
(There has been a mix-up in the original version of the Club of
Amsterdam Journal, February 2010, Issue 125. You can find the
correct article online
We apologise! - Editor, Club of Amsterdam Journal)
world needs a new taxation paradigm
by Leif Thomas Olsen, Associate Professor, International Relations,
As taxation is
both an administrative and a political issue of prime importance
to all societies and their power-structures, are changes in modes
of taxation both rare and slow. Income taxes, profit taxes and
VAT dominate, and are so heavily entrenched in our societies so
we hardly even notice how outdated this combination has become.
All societies are
burdened by tax problems. This problem is two-fold:
1. It is a major
administrative problem for the State (etc) to collect all the
taxes needed, and even harder to show that funds are used in
a justifiable manner.
2. Taxes indirectly
drive the socio-economic behaviour of all tax subjects - turning
them into 'social' slaves of whatever economic model that prevails.
As tax fatigue spreads
throughout the world, and tax evasion has become an art (tax planning),
and therefore hardly raises eyebrows anymore, are tax bureaucrats
ever busy inventing new taxes - along traditional lines - in order
to finance the constantly increasing administration of their respective
societies. That the State's cost side increases is not strange.
Technical infrastructure, administrative systems, collection activities
and fraud detection also costs money, at the same time as all
the traditional undertakings of the State gets more expensive
in the light of higher salaries and (consequently) higher tax
burdens for people working the systems. In addition to all this
will challenges of more recent date - environmental and humanitarian
problems caused by globalisation in particular - also require
The problem is that
the human incentive system works against more taxation, at the
same time as corporate as well as individual greed has proved
- beyond doubt - that communal needs must be communally financed.
To anyone willing to examine the evidence it is clear that
'the market' cannot solve the problem of (e.g.) low cost
education, low cost housing and low cost medical
care. Nor can 'the market' ensure that resources are fairly
distributed within reasonable time-frames (e.g. food and medicine
before those starving dies, security before those threatened
must flee, peace of mind before those exposed to stress
drops out of the system, etc. Many more examples could be listed,
but I trust the point is already made.
A serious divide
is also building between tax payers and authorities in terms of
trust. This is critical to a post-modern world, since the tax
payers are supposed to be the Masters of any system based
on free and fair elections of 'representatives' - who in turn
appoint the bureaucrats assigned to implement their political
In my upcoming book
Good Governance in the New Millennium I discuss the general
problem facing the West's current democratic model, where governments'
legitimacy based on election results must be questioned. Too many
inaccuracies are displayed when election campaigns are compared
to implemented policies, too few people care to vote, and too
many governments rule simply because they are the largest party,
not because they have a majority vote to support them. The nowadays
endemic influence of corporate capital in many countries' politics
is also a reason for this lack of legitimacy in the eyes of ordinary
Evidence of this
lack of trust, so often displayed in discussions between ordinary
citizens but withheld when the system's representatives are present
(as the general public often feel they lack hard evidence or can
be accused of speaking their private concern only), is now piling
up on the Internet - the only place where people from across vast
geographical distances can pool their views. Although few people
seem to disagree to the concept of taxes as such, do most feel
some kind of despair over the way their society's tax burden is
distributed and the collected funds allocated.
A new taxation paradigm
must take ...
here to read full article
Portrait: Marina Gorbis
Marina Gorbis, Futurist, Executive Director,
for the Future
A native of Odessa,
Ukraine, Marina is particularly suited to see things from a global
perspective. She has directed international programs and led international
development projects for SRI (formerly Stanford Research Institute)
in China, Japan, Vietnam, India, and Eastern Europe. Marina has
also authored publications on international business and economics,
with an emphasis on regional innovation and competitiveness.
In addition to serving
as IFTF's Executive Director, Marina led the Technology Horizons
Program for several years, focusing on the innovation at the intersection
of new technologies and social organization. She has initiated
a Global Ethnographic Network (GEN), a multi-year ethnographic
research program which tries to develop an understanding of daily
lives of people in Brazil, Russia, India, China, and Silicon Valley,
in an attempt to integrate their voices into IFTF's forecasts.
She has also led several major private client engagements at IFTF,
the most recent being a global Science & Technology Forecast
for the UK Government's Department of Science & Technology.
She holds an M.P.P. from the University of California, Berkeley,
a certificate in international business from the University of
London, and a B.A. in industrial psychology, also from the University
of California, Berkeley. California, Berkeley.
Our Season Program 2009 / 2010:
future of Sports
van Amsterdam - School of Sports and Nutrition,
Auditorium, Dr. Meurerlaan 8, 1067 SM
future of Music
Auditorium, Singelgrachtgebouw, Rhijnspoorplein 1, 1091 GC Amsterdam
[corner Wibautstraat and Mauritskade]
future of CERN
- World Trade Center, Metropolitan Boardroom of Amsterdam In Business,
D tower 12th floor, Strawinskylaan 1, 1077 XW Amsterdam
future of Bollywood
May 25 & 26,
on the future of TOURISM
lab in Spain.
Emporda in Catalonia, Spain
comments, ideas, articles are welcome!
Please write to Felix Bopp, Editor-in-Chief:
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All rights reserved.